Israeli election campaigns, and especially Likud campaigning under Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu, are known for their emphasis on security threats from within Gaza and the West Bank and, more importantly, from Iran’s nuclear program. By stressing these security threats and proclaiming himself the only possible leader to ensure citizens’ safety, Netanyahu arguably succeeded in silencing economic and social demands in Israel’s 2009 elections.
Surprisingly, even to close observers and polling experts, the appearance of a new political actor, Yair Lapid’s ‘Yesh Atid’ party, caused a major shift during the Israeli 2012-2013 election campaign. By focusing on socioeconomic issues, and addressing the controversial topic of special treatment for the ultraorthodox, particularly regarding their exemption from military service, former journalist and TV moderator Lapid succeeded in securing 19 of 120 parliamentary Knesset seats, emerging as the second largest party.
While much of the party’s success has been associated with the person of Lapid and his team of campaigning professionals, considering perceptual effects and especially the climate of opinion may add a valuable theoretical perspective to the discussion. Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann’s research on the ‘Spiral of Silence’ describes how individuals are more likely to state their opinions if these are along the lines of the mainstream, and less likely to do so if mainstream ideas oppose their views.
Section 2 introduces this theory, which was previously applied to German election campaigning in the 1970s and U.S. presidential competition between Reagan and Carter in 1980, among others. In order to provide the reader with an idea of the complex Israeli political sphere, section 3 introduces the main political actors and parties, and places them in the broader context of Israeli domestic and foreign politics. In section 4, the ‘spiral of silence’ theory is applied to evaluate whether this theory can explain key differences between the 2009 and 2013 Israeli elections, and the shift in campaign dynamics from security discourse to a discourse on domestic socioeconomic issues. The aim is to evaluate whether there were developments in public opinion that can explain the changes in public statements following the ‘Spiral of Silence’ theory. Finally, section 5 summarizes the findings and critically assesses the usefulness of this analytical approach, offering suggestions for future research. One such analysis, which is excluded due to space limitations, could be to identify how framing, priming or agenda-setting influence public opinion, and to identify which actors are successful in doing so.
To explain why only few citizens of Hitler’s ‘Third Reich’ openly voiced criticism early on, German political scientist Noelle-Neumann developed a framework of questions to assess opinions expressed in private and public. The theory’s core insight is that “one’s perception of the distribution of public opinion motivates one’s willingness to express political opinions.” Because people with opposing views increasingly abstain from debate out of fear of isolating themselves, mainstream views are further strengthened. ‘The Spiral of Silence’ then refers to the phenomenon of a ‘spiraling process’ deafening certain individuals and empowering others, thus establishing one dominant opinion.
Noelle-Neumann concludes that for the individual “not isolating himself is more important than his own judgment,” and he is “more frightened of isolation than of committing an error,” therefore joining the masses, despite disagreement. Lacking hard evidence of public opinion, people turn to the mass media, which may, for propaganda or other reasons, further shape the dominant opinion, and speed up the ‘Spiral of Silence’. In addition to the perception of current public opinion, the perception of future developments determine one’s willingness to express controversial opinions, which makes the results of polls a core element of the theory. Only few people, the ‘resistant hardcore’, are "not prepared to conform, to change their opinions, or even to be silent in the face of public opinion," and only listen to the opinions of their own camp.
The latter are important findings, since Noelle-Neumann attributes a ‘quasi-statistical organ’ or sense to people, which is used to make judgments on current and future public opinion. This may be impaired by group polarization, mass media coverage or opinion polling. As mentioned, other theories of mass communication, such as mass media agenda-setting, framing or priming are helpful in evaluating these processes. However, the theory does not apply to all areas of life. While some fields are static, and disregard of e.g. customs leads to immediate risk of isolation, others are ‘disputed’ or ‘subject to change,’ prompting individuals to assess whether the expression of deviating opinions will be accepted by public opinion.
To ensure a common understanding, public opinion will hereafter be understood as “the aggregation of the views of individuals in society,” measured through opinion polls. Jean Jacques Rousseau and John Locke, who coined this idea between the mid-17th and 18th century, already discussed the negative notion of “pressure to conform.” Specific to election campaigning, it can be defined as “the judgment, founded on rational discussion, of informed and responsible citizens meting out praise or blame to the government.”
With four elections in ten years, Israel has had a turbulent past of almost constant election campaigning. This battle for influence of individuals within parties, parties within the electoral system, and, finally, possible coalition partners in government revolves around central recurring themes.
This section introduces the main political actors of the last two elections, and their alignment to and perception of core issues, in order to analyze the changing dynamics between 2008-2009 and 2012-2013. It is important to note that Israel has a highly proportional electoral system, where each party presents a national list of candidates, voters choose one party and each party receives their proportion of the 120 seats in national parliament or ‘Knesset’ - provided they pass the 2% minimum threshold. Candidates enter the Knesset in the order of the initial party list. Palestinians are granted citizenship and thereby voting rights, depending on their residency.
Despite strong polarization vis-à-vis disputed topics, such as the question of a Palestinian state, Israel has a complex political arena given the fact that leading politicians of major parties have often formed break-away factions. The most important parties in 2009 and 2013 and their election results are listed hereafter:
Figure 1: Main Parties and Election Results in 2009 and 2013
Analysts use various dimensions to ideologically distinguish Israel’s parties. Some distinctions are made according to positions towards specific issues (e.g. the ultraorthodox’ exempt from military service); some are according to traditional left-right orientation (e.g. on liberalization and financial policies), and others according to parties’ approach towards security. Security has played a major role ever since the founding of Israel by the UN in 1948, followed by the immediate outbreak of the first Arab-Israeli war in 1948 and subsequent ones in 1967 (‘Six-Day War’) and 1973 (‘Yom Kippur War’). The two Intifadas (Palestinian ‘uprisings’) in 1987 and 2002, the Lebanon Wars in 1982 and 2006, and the 2008 Gaza War, furthered this discourse.
Further distinction is made between predominantly Palestinian and Jewish parties. Israeli professor Yiftachel introduces another set of categories in his analyses of the 2009 and 2013 elections. His three blocks are 1) colonialist (those opposing a Palestinian State, and in favor of continuing construction of settlements); 2) ethnocratic (those in favor of a two-state solution, but “ambivalent about West Bank settlements,” acknowledging the need to evacuate them, but attempting to preserve territory in adjusted future borders); 3) democratic (those supporting a fully independent Palestine, including occupied territory and East Jerusalem, in addition to equal rights for all in a non-Jewish, ‘state of all citizens’, Israel).Continued on Next Page »
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Endnotes
1.) Cf. (Yesh Atid n.d.): Yair Lapid had only founded the “There is a future” party in January 2012.
2.) Cf. (Glynn and McLeod 1984) and(Noelle-Neumann 1977)
3.) Cf. (Noelle-Neumann 1977)
4.) Cf. (Glynn and McLeod 1984)
5.) Cf. (Entman 2004, 4) as quoted in (Golan 2013, 361): Framing is “selecting and highlighting some facets of events or issues, and making connections among them so as to promote a particular interpretation, evaluation, and/or solution.”
6.) Cf. (Krosnick and Kinder 1990, 509-510): Priming is the process of influencing individuals to make them associate certain images or words with given categories “alter[ing] the political importance that the public attaches to the flow of events.”
7.) Cf. (Kosicki 2006, 124-125): Agenda-setting is the process of shaping the list of topics which are considered most important by a public. This can be done by politicians, the media, social movement actors or credible actors such as academics.
8.) Cf. (University of Twente 2013): Noelle-Neumann was herself working for Nazi Germany’s newspaper „Das Reich“ in the late 1930s leading to claims by analysts that she was developing the theory to justify her own actions.
9.) (Glynn and McLeod 1984, 731)
10.) Cf. (Taylor 1982)
11.) (Glynn and McLeod 1984, 732)
12.) (Noelle-Neumann 1974, 43)
13.) Cf. (Katz and Allport 1931): Daniel Katz and Floyd H. Allport in 1931 called this phenomenon ‘pluralistic ignorance’, where a majority rejects a norm without expressing its views, because of the assumption that most accept it.
14.) Cf. (Mutz 1989, 20)
15.) (Glynn and McLeod 1984, 732)
16.) Cf. (Noelle-Neumann 1977, 157)
17.) Cf. (Noelle-Neumann 1974)
18.) Cf. (Noelle-Neumann 1977, 144)
19.) (McLean and McMillan 2013)
20.) (Noelle-Neumann 1977, 143-144)
21.) (Noelle-Neumann 1977, 143)
22.) Cf. (Jewish Virtual Library 2013)
23.) Cf. (Marcus 2009, 59)
24.) Cf. (Sheizaf 2012): E.g. Palestinians living in East Jerusalem are granted ‘residency’, but not ‘citizen’ status, and are therefore only allowed to vote in municipal elections.
25.) Cf. (Jewish Virtual Library 2013): The remaining seven seats went to the Gil party which is not further discussed because non-present in 2009 and 2013.
26.) (Yiftachel 2009, 76)
27.) Cf. (AlJazeera 2013): Lieberman is a Russian immigrant and West Bank settler living eighteen km within occupied territory.
28.) (Yiftachel 2009, 75)
29.) Cf. (Yiftachel 2009, 77): Ariel Sharon established Kadima in November 2005 after disputes over his support for the American ‘road map’ towards a Palestinian state.
30.) (Yiftachel 2009, 81)
31.) Own figure based on (Jewish Virtual Library 2013) and (Yiftachel 2009)
32.) The so called ‘hawks’, favour ‘predatory solutions’, and ‘doves’, favour disengagement and peaceful means.
33.) Cf. (Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia 2012)
34.) Cf. (Yiftachel 2009, 78-79): Yiftachel places Likud and Yisrael Beitenu in the colonialist category; Labour and Kadima in the ethnocratic category; and Meretz and the Arab (Balad and Ra’am Ta’al) and Arab-Jewish (Hadash) parties in the democratic block.
35.) Cf. (Jewish Virtual Library, Biography of Ehud Olmert 2013): Both Sharon and Olmert had previously been leading politicians in Likud.
36.) Cf. (Marcus 2009, 57): Likud represented her as too weak to face the security challenges, and Shas demanded large financial support for families, and entirely rejected a potential division of Jerusalem.
37.) Cf. (Marcus 2009, 56-57)
38.) Cf. (Yiftachel 2009, 81)
39.) (Marcus 2009, 61)
40.) Cf. (Goldstone 2011)
41.) Cf. (Alimi 2012, 402)
42.) Cf. (Gordon 2012, 352): Palestinian communities in Umm el Fahem, Jaffa and Tira among others joined the protests
43.) Cf. (Gordon 2012, 349)
44.) (Alimi 2012, 404)
45.) Cf. (Alimi 2012, 402)
46.) Cf. (Alimi 2012, 403,405)
47.) Cf. (Gordon 2012, 353)
48.) Cf. (Alimi 2012, 404)
49.) Cf. (BBC News 2012)
50.) (The Jerusalem Post 2012)
51.) Cf. (The Guardian 2013)
52.) Cf. (Marcus 2009, 57)
53.) Cf. (Marcus 2009, 57)
54.) Cf. (McGovern 2013): The 2007 U.S. NIE concluded with “high confidence” that Iran had stopped working on nuclear weapon development in the fall of 2003 and not restarted it. Cf. (Secretary of Defense Gates 2009) and (CBS News 2009): Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Secretary of Defence Gates both warned in July 2009, that a preventive strike on Iran would be "ill advised", "very destabilizing" and "likely very bad".
55.) Quote from Kadima strategist in (Marcus 2009, 63)
56.) Cf. (Jutcovich 2013); Netanyahu as quoted in (International Crisis Group 2013, 15):”I won’t wait until it’s too late to decide on Israeli attack on Iran” and “… there is no sense of urgency. All the problems that we have [in the region], however important, will be dwarfed by this messianic, apocalyptic, extreme regime that would have atomic bombs.”
57.) Cf. (Hersh 2011, 33): Statement upon retirement of 2002-2010 Mossad chief Meir Dagan
58.) Interview with Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak by Haaretz daily newspaper as quoted in (Hersh 2011, 33): “I don’t think in terms of panic. I don’t think [the Iranian leadership] will do anything so long as they are in complete control of their senses, but to say that somebody really knows and understands what will happen with such a leadership sitting in a bunker in Tehran ... I don’t know what it would do.”
59.) Cf. (Marcus 2009, 62)
60.) Cf. (Yiftachel 2013, 59)
61.) Own figure based on section 3.3 analysis and sources
62.) Cf. (Noelle-Neumann 1977, 148): “In election campaigns, this spiraling process of opinion expression … can lead … to an increase in the number of supporters of a political party and ‘thus the decisive margin for the election victory’.”
63.) Cf. (Glynn and McLeod 1984, 738): The theory states, that individuals seeing their position gain support are more likely to discuss, and individuals seeing their position loose support less likely to discuss.
64.) Cf. (Rahat and Hazan 2013, 375)
65.) Cf. (Marcus 2009, 61)
66.) (Yiftachel 2009, 75)
67.) Cf. (Marcus 2009, 62)
68.) (Marcus 2009, 55,56)
69.) (Alpher 2009)
70.) (Yiftachel 2009, 75)
71.) Cf. (Yiftachel 2009, 78-79). See section 0 for definitions of the blocks.
72.) Cf. (Jewish Virtual Library, Israeli Opinion Regarding Peace with the Palestinians 2013): “Israeli has no partner for peace.”
73.) Cf. (Perez 2013, 5)
74.) Cf. (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2012): "No government would tolerate a situation where nearly a fifth of its people live under a constant barrage of rockets and missile fire, and Israel will not tolerate this situation."
75.) Cf. (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2012): FM Lieberman at meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (20 Nov 2012): "We appreciate the international community’s position, which unequivocally supports Israel’s right to protect itself and its citizens. Talk and public calls on Israel to abstain from a ground operation strengthen the Hamas and extend the current confrontation. If Israel will be forced to initiate a ground operation, it will not be a limited operation, nor will it be 'Operation Pillar of Defense 2', but rather 'Defensive Shield 2.'"
76.) Cf. (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2012): “President Shimon Peres spoke to US President Barack Obama (14 Nov 2012) about the situation in southern Israel and Gaza and said, ‘The head of the military force of Hamas was killed half an hour ago. He was a most extreme man and was in charge of all the attacks and assassinations from Gaza against Israel. We shall handle it with great care. Our intention is not to raise the flames, but already for days, day and night, they are shooting rockets at Israel. Women cannot fall asleep. I was today there with the children.’”
77.) Cf. (Louw 2010, 222-223)
78.) (The Times of Israel 2013) as quoted in (Griffith 2013)
79.) Cf. (The Washington Post 2013): “In one clip, he stands before a map of the Middle East, surveying an array of threats and promising that if reelected he would shield Israel with rocket defense systems, surround it with a border fence and prevent a nuclear Iran."
80.) Cf. (Netanyahu 2009) or cf. (Netanyahu 2013): Portraying himself e.g. in 2009 as bearing the burden of preventing another disaster like the holocaust. Cf.(Allin and Simon 2010, 52). Cf. also Ariel Levite, former Israeli national security adviser as quoted in (Allin and Simon 2010, 52): "For Begin [referring to 1981 attack at Osirak, Iraq] it was between him and God. There is strong evidence that that's how Bibi [Benjamin Netanyahu] defines his historical mission.”
81.) Cf. (Haaretz Newspaper, Republicans blast Kerry’s 'anti-Israeli' Senate briefing against new Iran sanctions 2013); U.S. State Department described Israeli evaluations of nuclear programme of Iran as “inaccurate, exaggerated and not based in reality”; Cf. (Haaretz Newspaper, Netanyahu: A bad deal with Iran could lead to war 2013): “Yukiya Amano, Director General of the IAEA, saw ‘no radical change” in Iran’s nuclear programme over past three months.’”
82.) Cf. (Louw 2010, 223) and cf. (Tagesschau 2013) reporting on “Netanyahu’s media campaign”
83.) Cf. (The Guardian 2013)
84.) (Gordon 2012, 349)
85.) Cf. (Haaretz Newspaper 2012)
86.) Cf. (The Washington Post 2013): 47% saw socioeconomic issues as chief concern, with only 10% viewing Iran, and only 18% negotiations with the Palestinians as the most important issue in their voting. The conscription of ultraorthodox Jews gained in public debate with 12% of interviewees citing this as the most important issue.
87.) Cf. (Gordon 2012, 350)
88.) Cf. (Gordon 2012, 352)
89.) Cf. (Gordon 2012, 353): Public statement during tent protests one day after the 18 August 2011 killings of 8 by Palestinian militants, and the reprisal killings of 15 Palestinians in Gaza: “Quietly, but resolutely. Because the nation demonstrating is the same nation absorbing the blows of fire from our enemies, and its staunch demand for a deep change in economic priorities and for overall social justice does not come at the expense of the struggle against terror—on the contrary. A nation whose sons are bound by mutual guarantee, and fight together for the future and the fortitude of the State of Israel, is a strong nation who can face all its enemies.”
90.) Cf. (Eiran and Malin 2013, 78), which documents different fears in Israel, including the “fear of annihilation, fear of a more difficult security environment, socioeconomic fears [, and the] fear of a challenge to Israel’s founding ideological principles.” These fears are perceived as cumulative fears.
91.) Cf. (Shallah 2009, 7): 85% of interviewees replied they feared Iran; 41% therefore supported attacking Iran, and 23% said they intended to leave Israel entirely out fear of Iran.
92.) Cf. (Jutcovich 2013): Other factors may have been the surprisingly high turnout of over 70%, and the high number (25-27%) of undecided voters pre-election.
93.) Cf. (The Washington Post 2013)
94.) (UN Cartographic 2004)
